Activity 2.1: Predictions About Patterns in Ecosystems (30 min)

Target Student Performance

Students make predictions about changes in the mass of different populations in a meadow ecosystem and plans to maximize the fox population.

Resources Provided

Setup

For Activity 2.1, open the Predictions and Planning for the Meadow Simulation PPT and project it. Prepare enough copies of the Predictions and Planning Tool for the Meadow Simulation for each student to have one.

Directions

1. Use the instructional model to show students where they are in the course of the unit.

Show slide 2 of the Predictions and Planning for the Meadow Simulation PPT

2. Introduce the activity.

Use Slide 3 to remind students about meadows.

3. Discuss changes in organic matter pools.

Use Slide 4 to introduce the Meadow Simulation as a way to study change over time in organic matter pools.

Use Slide 5 to review the organic matter pools in a meadow and to introduce the three pools in the Meadow Simulation (grasses, rabbits, and foxes).

4. Introduce the Meadow Simulation.

Use Slides 6 and 7 to point out the key features of the online simulation. Explain that they will use the simulation in the next lesson to investigate patterns in organic matter in the meadow ecosystem.

5. Have students record their predictions about the biomass changes in the meadow ecosystem.

Pass out the Predictions and Planning Tool for the Meadow Simulation and give students 5 – 10 minutes to answer the questions individually.

6. Have students discuss their predictions in pairs and as a class.

When students have completed their Predictions and Planning Tools, divide students into pairs and tell them to compare and contrast their predictions with each other and to look for differences and similarities. Give students 2-3 minutes to compare their predictions.

Display Slide 8 and ask students to share their ideas for the mass of each population after 100 years. Type their predictions in the table on the slide. Try to elicit a range of predictions and help students look for similarities and differences in the predictions and reasoning that they share.
Display Slide 9 and ask students to share their predictions about what initial settings will result in the greatest mass of foxes at the end of the 100 year-simulation. Type the predictions for three different groups on the slide (try to get a range of different ideas represented). Help students look for similarities and differences in the predictions and reasoning.

Tell students that they will revisit their ideas after the investigation to see how their ideas changed over time.

Assessment

Ideally, the discussion about the Predictions and Planning Tool in this activity will reveal a range of student ideas. Level 4 students will realize that the mass of producers must be much larger than the mass of herbivores, which, in turn will be much larger than the mass of carnivores. Level 2 and 3 students may assume that the mass of producers, herbivores, and carnivores may be more equal or have other ideas about organic matter patterns in ecosystems. Use the 2.1 Assessing Predictions and Planning Tool for the Meadow Simulation to assess students' ideas.