Directions 1. Introduce the Activity. Display Slide 2 of the 4.4 Global Computer Model PPT to show student where they are in the instructional sequence. 2. Revisit Carbon Pools and Fluxes. Using Slide 3, revisit the three carbon pools in the global carbon cycle. Remind students that carbon can be found in the organic matter pool, inorganic pool and fossil fuel pool. Discuss what carbon might be found in in each pool. Display Slide 4 and revisit the three carbon fluxes in the global carbon pool. Recall the processes that move CO2 into and out of pools. 3. Revisit the long-term trend in the Keeling Curve. Display Slide 5. Review conclusions made so far about global carbon cycling and about how the Tiny World Model can help explain the annual cycle of the long-term trend of the Keeling Curve. 4. Introduce Goals for Activity 4.4 Display Slide 6 of 4.4 Global Computer Model PPT. Revisit goals from past lessons and tell students that in this lesson they will aim to figure out how to accurately predict future CO2 concentrations 5. Introduce the Global Computer Model. Display Slide 7 of 4.4 Global Computer Model PPT. Tell students that they will be using this online global computer model to help them answer their question of how they can predict future CO2 concentrations. Display Slide 8. Point out the various carbon Pools. Show Slide 9 to point out the various fluxes. 6. Reading About Global Pools and Fluxes Have students take out 4.4 Global Computer Model Reading. Read through the reading, stopping at The Balance Between Photosynthesis and Cellular Respiration section on page 3. Use Slide 10 and/or the Questions, Connections, Questions Student Reading Strategy. See the Questions, Connections, Questions Reading Strategy Educator Resource document for information about how to engage students with this strategy. 7. Overview of how to use the Global Computer Model Have students follow the URL to the Global Computer Model. The URL is on Slide 7 of 4.4 Global Computer Model PPT or on page 1 of 4.4 Global Computer Model Reading. Display Slide 11 to show students how to change a size of a flux on the Global Computer Model. Use Slide 12 to show students how to control when to the disturbance will begin and when the disturbance will end in the Global Computer Model. Use Slide 13 to show students how to use the slider to choose a year to view in the results table. Refer to Slide 14 to show students how to read the table on the results page. Point out the year and what each number represents in the table so that they know what to record on their 4.4 Global Computer Model Worksheet. 8. Students Work to Complete Global Computer Model Worksheet Students work alone or in pairs to complete Runs 1-4 on the Global Computer Model Worksheet using the online Global Computer Model. 9. (Optional) Have Students Compare Results and Discuss Patterns Using Slides 15-17, have students compare their results and discuss patterns for their runs 1-3 on the 4.4 Global Computer Model Worksheet. 10. Students Read and Answer Remaining Questions Have students read the final section in 4.4 Global Computer Model Reading, The Balance Between Photosynthesis and Cellular Respiration section, on page 3. Have students write answers to questions on the 4.4 Global Computer Model Worksheet either individually or in pairs. 11. Discuss answers to Run 4 and Questions about Patterns Using Slide 18, have students discuss answers to Section B of the 4.4 Global Computer Model Worksheet. 12. (Optional) Revisit Earlier Predictions Display Slide 19, have students revise and discuss their predictions for the Big Idea Probe: What Would Happen if We Cut Fossil Fuel Use in Half. Use the Assessing the Big Idea Probe: What Would Happen if We Cut Fossil Fuel Use in Half to aid in facilitating discussion of ideas 13. Have a discussion to complete the Learning Tracking Tool for this activity. Show Slide 20 of the 4.4 Global Computer Model PPT. Have students take out their Learning Tracking Tool from the previous lesson. Have students write the activity name in the first column, "4.4 Global Computer Model." Have a class discussion about what students figured out during the activity that will help them in answering the lesson driving questions: What causes the annual cycle: CO2 concentrations in Hawaii to go down every summer and up every winter? What causes the long-term trend: CO2 concentrations to go up every year? How can we predict what will happen to CO2 concentrations in the future? When you come to consensus as a class, have students record the answer in the second column of the tool. Have a class discussion about what students are wondering now that will help them move towards answering the unit driving question. Have students record the questions in the third column of the tool. Have students keep their Learning Tracking Tool for future activities. Example Learning Tracking Tool Activity What We Figured Out What We are Asking Now Activity 4.4: Global Computer Model When the fluxes into and out of living and soil organic matter (photosynthesis and cellular respiration), then the unbalanced flux from fossil fuel combustion increases the size of the atmospheric CO2 pool. What else affects the size of the Earth’s atmospheric CO2 pool?